IATA Reports September 2011 Airline Traffic

IATA member traffic results for September 2011 show diverging trends for cargo and passenger traffic.

Passenger traffic was 5.6% higher than the same month last year and stronger than the 4.6% year-on-year growth recorded in August. Air freight on the other hand posted a 2.7% contraction for September compared to September 2010. This is a further deterioration from the 2.4% decline recorded in August.

Tony Tyler, IATA?s Director General and CEO, said, ?September?s strength in passenger demand was a pleasant surprise. Freight demand contracted for a fifth consecutive month and this trend is in line with falling business and consumer confidence. We are still expecting a general weakening in passenger traffic as we head towards the year-end.?

International Passenger Markets

International air travel volumes rebounded to levels reached in July, following a dip in August. The sharp decline in business confidence in most economies, and the weakness in US and European consumer confidence, suggest reluctance for both business and leisure travel. Continuing strong air travel markets may reflect the robust conditions in emerging markets and travel booked earlier in the year when there was more economic optimism.

Passenger load factors stood at 79.5% in September, slightly below the 80.1% recorded for the same month last year. Highest load factors were recorded in North America (82.6%) and Europe (82.4%). The load factor for Asia Pacific airlines slipped to 76% as the region absorbs the largest number of new aircraft deliveries.

Latin America carriers reported the largest increase in demand at 10.6% (up from a 6.4% increase in August), supported by robust economic conditions.

European carriers saw a 9.2% increase, slightly behind the 9.5% increase in capacity. This comes despite the continuing Eurozone crisis. The weak Euro is enhancing Europe?s attractiveness to tourists and creating export opportunities for business.

Traffic carried by Middle East carriers rose by 9.1%, ahead of a capacity increase of 8.5%--a step change from the 15% capacity increases seen in recent years.

 Asia Pacific carriers saw a 4.3% increase in demand, well below the 6.3% increase in capacity. Despite strong domestic growth in India and China, growth rates for international markets slowed.

North American carriers recorded a 1.2% increase in demand, the weakest among the regions. It lagged behind a 2.9% increase in capacity.

African carriers experienced a 5% increase in demand, closely matching the 5.2% increase in capacity.

Domestic Passenger Markets

 Domestic markets rose strongly in September at 3.8% (up from 2.2% in August). This was also significantly stronger than the 2.8% increase in domestic capacity.

India led the way with 18.4% growth, although slightly below the 20.1% increase in capacity. This was followed by China at 9.7% (more robust than the 8.1% increase in capacity) and Brazil where a 7.5% increase in demand was well below the 14.6% increase in capacity.

The recovery in Japan?s domestic market following March?s earthquake and tsunami stalled in September with traffic 14.5% below previous year levels. This is a step back from the 12.3% decline recorded in August.

Carriers in the US domestic market cut capacity by 0.7% but recorded an increase in demand of 1.6%.

Air Freight (Domestic + International)

 Freight volumes have fallen significantly during the third quarter. By September, freight volumes were 5% below those carried at the end of the first quarter. This represents a deterioration in trade and economic conditions. Inventory to expected sales ratios have risen and shipments by air are being cut.

Asia Pacific carriers are the largest players in air cargo and have been the hardest hit with a 6.3% decline in demand compared to September 2010. This is despite robust economic growth in many countries in the region. The disruptions to supply chains as a result of the Japanese tsunami and earthquake continue to dampen air freight in the region.

European carriers also recorded a contraction in demand of 2.4% while North American carriers reported that September freight traffic was flat compared to the previous year.

Bottom Line

Despite stronger than expected growth in passenger markets during September, the industry is bracing for more difficult times ahead. IATA?s recent Airline Business Confidence survey reported a significant decline in profitability expectations over the next 12 months. More worrying is the expectation that unit costs will increase with little optimism for yields. The majority expected no change in passenger yields while 90% of respondents were split equally among those expecting cargo yields to remain the same or decline. IATA is expecting profitability to decline from $6.9 billion in 2011 to $4.9 billion in 2012 for a margin of just 0.8%.

Airlines play a key role in connecting global business. At this time of economic uncertainty in many parts of the world, US plans to raise an additional $36 billion in aviation taxes over the next decade could not be more misguided. Last month the UK recognized the harm that its GBP2.5 billion Air Passenger Duty was doing in Northern Ireland and announced a major cut. It?s time to apply that lesson at a more global level. Increasing the cost of doing business by making air transport more expensive destroys competitiveness. Governments should protect the 33 million jobs and $3.5 trillion in economic activity supported by aviation with a sound policy framework?not by suffocating the industry with taxes,? said Tyler.

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AAPA Reports Asia Pacific Airline Traffic for September 2011

Preliminary traffic figures for the month of September 2011 show sustained growth in international air passenger traffic, whilst international air freight markets continued to soften.

According to figures from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), Asia Pacific based airlines flew a total of 16 million international passengers in September 2011, a growth of 5.4% compared to the same month last year, underpinned by business and leisure demand on Asian routes.

 Measured in revenue passenger kilometre terms (RPK), international passenger traffic grew by 5.2%. With available seat capacity expanding by 6.8%, the average international passenger load factor fell 1.1 percentage points to 77.3%.

As a result of a slowdown in trade activities, Asia Pacific international air cargo demand, in freight tonne kilometre (FTK) terms, declined by 6.5% compared to the same month last year. Offered freight capacity contracted by 1.3%, resulting in a 3.5 percentage point decline in the average international air cargo load factor for the region?s carriers to 63.8% for the month.

 ?Overall, for the first three quarters of the year, Asia Pacific airlines saw a 3.7% increase in the number of international passengers carried, whereas international air cargo demand fell by 4.1%,? said Mr. Andrew Herdman, AAPA Director General. ?Resilient Asian economies, with relatively strong domestic spending power, helped support leisure and business travel markets. However, a slowdown in export demand, as a result of the ongoing European economic crisis and softening North American economies, contributed to the fall in overall cargo traffic. As a result, Asian airlines have seen only modest revenue growth this year. At the same time, airlines have had to grapple with a 40% increase in jet fuel prices, squeezing what are typically already very thin margins.?

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Cathay Pacific Reports Traffic Figures for September 2011

Cathay Pacific?s and Dragonair?s combined traffic figures for September 2011 show a year-on-year increase in passenger numbers that was below the increase in capacity. Cargo and mail tonnage showed a decline for the sixth consecutive month.

Cathay Pacific and Dragonair carried a total of 2,255,605 passengers last month ? up 3.5% on the same month last year ? while the passenger load factor fell by 2.1 percentage points to 79.7%. Capacity for the month, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), was up by 9.8%. For the year to date, the number of passengers carried increased by 2.1% while capacity was up by 9.1%.

Cathay Pacific General Manager Revenue Management James Tong said, ?In September we saw a falloff in demand in the back end, as expected after the summer peak. The Japan route continued to see a recovery, though China was down compared to last year due to the Shanghai Expo effect in 2010. Premium business held up well in September in terms of volume and yield, with currency movements working in our favour, but the outlook is getting more uncertain as companies begin to review their travel policies in light of the economic situation.?

The two airlines carried 131,443 tonnes of cargo and mail in September, a 10.1% decrease compared to the same month last year, while the cargo and mail load factor was down 5 percentage points to 64.8%. Capacity, measured in available cargo/mail tonne kilometres, was down by 0.8%, while cargo and mail tonne kilometres flown were down by 7.9%. For the year to date, tonnage has dropped by 6.4% compared to a capacity increase of 9.8%.

Cathay Pacific General Manager Cargo Sales & Marketing James Woodrow said, ?On the cargo side there was no significant change from the situation in August, with the key Hong Kong and China markets both remaining soft and demand to long-haul destinations, particularly Europe, below expectations. There is no sign yet of the traditional year-end peak beginning. On the positive side, intra-Asia traffic is holding up well and flights from most destinations into Hong Kong have been relatively full. We have recently launched freighter services to Chongqing and Chengdu to boost our presence in the growing Western China market.?

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Changi Reports September 2011 Traffic

Singapore Changi Airport handled 3.82 million passenger movements in September 2011, an increase of 12.5% over the same month last year.

 Aircraft movements grew in tandem, increasing 16.4% to 25,500 movements during the month.

For the first nine months of the year, Changi handled 34.2 million passenger movements, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%.

 Traffic on low-cost carriers, accounting for a quarter of the total at Changi, increased 26%, while traffic on full-service carriers grew 7.1% during the same period.

Aircraft movements increased 13.8% during the nine months, with Changi Airport handling 221,900 flights.

Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia have been the major contributors to passenger traffic growth at Changi Airport year-to-date. However, the sustainability of this growth may be impacted by weaker travel demand to and from Europe and the United States as a result of increasing economic uncertainty in these regions.

Changi Airport handled 154,400 tonnes of cargo in September, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year. For the nine months, airfreight movements amounted to 1.38 million tonnes, representing a growth of 2.5% over the corresponding period last year.

As at 1 October 2011, Changi Airport is connected to some 210 cities in 60 countries and territories, and serves 100 airlines operating more than 5,900 weekly flights.

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